Predicting dropout intention in Moroccan universities: A first-year student study using Tinto’s model

Mansouri Zoulal

African Educational Research Journal
Published: October 28 2025
Volume 13, Issue 4
Pages 423-434
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17464900

Abstract

Student attrition remains a pressing concern in open-access faculties in Moroccan universities. Identifying key factors influencing first-year students’ dropout intention is crucial. Grounded in Tinto’s (1993) Model of Institutional Departure, this quantitative study surveyed 2,220 first-year students across thirteen faculties in two universities to assess their perceptions of academic and social experiences, and to evaluate a prediction model using “intent to reenroll” at their faculty of registration the following year, as a proxy for dropout intention. Results of the binary logistic regression indicated that lower levels of initial commitments, academic integration, social integration, and subsequent commitments significantly predicted dropout intention. Academic integration and subsequent commitments were the strongest predictors. These findings suggest the need for targeted institutional strategies to enhance student persistence, particularly during the first year.

Keywords: Moroccan university, dropout, open-access faculties, first-year students, academic integration, social integration, intent to reenroll.

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